Microsoft and Novell: Much ado about...

I was in meetings and flights all day, but when I got off my last flight of the day, there were scads of emails waiting for me on my phone.

"I hope you haven't sold all your Novell stock!"

"We have GOT to talk about this!"

and

"Red Hat is screwed now!"

I figured the Red Sea had parted to allow Ron Hovsepian and Steve Ballmer to pass, holding hands and singing kumbayah.

Nope.

What I learned, once I got to my computer, was that Novell and Microsoft have agreed to do what the market has already been forcing them to do: interoperate and not sue each other. Am I missing something? Oh, yes. "Sales support." I'm not yet sure what that means, but I guarantee it doesn't mean doing anything to promote Linux, as Ballmer said:

"If you want something, I'm still going to tell you [to buy] Windows, Windows, Windows."

He has a fiduciary duty to sell Windows, Windows, Windows, and to partner with whatever companies he thinks will help him sell more...Windows and with those that help him kill...Linux. Which camp does Novell fit into? Not sure, but I don't think it's in Novell's shareholder interest to help Microsoft with either goal. This isn't about helping Linux (SUSE Linux or otherwise), but rather about killing the only real threat to Microsoft's dominance in the operating system market:

Red Hat.

On the technical integration, it's fairly focused, as reported by ComputerWorld:

Microsoft and Novell plan to work together on three key areas of technical collaboration: virtualization, Web services management and the Open Document Framework spec. Specifically, the companies will build technology that will allow customers that want to run Windows on top of IT environments that primarily run Linux and vice versa.

Sounds rosy...kind of like when Microsoft made BIG NEWS about its truce with Sun. Anyone remember much coming out of that? Me, neither.

The most interesting thing about the news is all that was left unsaid, namely:

• Microsoft clearly does not view Novell as a threat. You don't link up with those that threaten to crush your business, not unless customers are demanding it. Given the relative market shares of Red Hat and Novell, it's a near certainty that if Linux and Windows integration is desirable (and it is, and customers are asking for it), then the most desirable partner for Microsoft (from a customer standpoint) would be Red Hat. Which brings me to...
  
  
• Red Hat is clearly doing just fine without Microsoft. People like Rob Enderle are foolishly calling this the end of Red Hat's road. Red Hat is at the top of its game, and has massive market share. Will the Oracle move and Microsoft's buddying up with Novell cause some pain for the company? Sure. But the real news is why Oracle and Microsoft felt the need to act in the first place.
  
  Why did Oracle choose to dump on Red Hat? Because Red Hat is a perceived threat. Why? Because Red Hat is dominating the Linux market. In related fashion, Microsoft is partnering with Novell because it gives them a way to show good faith to customers without actually impacting its business negatively. Does anyone really think Microsoft would do anything to jeopardize its Windows business? Of course not.
  
  So, when you hear Ballmer say this:

  "We want those customers who are coming to Windows and Linux to chose the Novell SUSE product line, and we are going to put our marketing behind that."

  and you're a would-be customer of Linux, is your decision really going to be driven by what Ballmer wants you to do? Am I the only one that feels his seal of approval for a technology he'd dearly love to kill is clearly disingenuous and designed to support a weaker competitor in the hopes that both Novell and Red Hat will die?
  
  
• Microsoft wasn't going to sue Novell, anyway. A little remarked, but still true fact is that Novell has long held patents that go to the heart of Microsoft's Office business. Whatever saber rattling Microsoft might do about Linux, it knows that Novell has a great "counter argument." This announcement was little more than public acknowledgment of an uneasy truce. And it's a truce that helps Red Hat as much as it does Novell...
  
  
• The patent protection applies to Red Hat, whatever Ballmer might say. Specifically, he said:

  "Novell is acting as a proxy for its customers, and only its customers. If they (businesses) want patent peace and interoperability, then they'll have to look to Suse Linux."

  Given that most of the code in SUSE Linux is (gasp!) exactly the same as in Red Hat Enterprise Linux, it's hard to see what lawsuit Microsoft could launch against Red Hat (or Ubuntu, or Debian, or....) that wouldn't land on Novell's SUSE Linux, as well. So they won't. It's a clever gimmick, but only that.
  
  And if Microsoft tried to restrict its patent protection to SUSE Linux it would run afoul of Section 7 of the GPL, for the reasons above and below...
  
  
• The patent protection may violate the GPL on another count. First, as Eben Moglen argues

  If you make an agreement which requires you to pay a royalty to anybody for the right to distribute GPL software, you may not distribute it under the GPL. Section 7 of the GPL requires that you have, and pass along to everybody, the right to distribute software freely and without additional permission.

  Oops. Guess Novell's and Microsoft's lawyers didn't catch that one.

Clearly, this news will help Novell...for a few months. But every time partners have tried to prop up Novell (like IBM's investment a few years back), the market has voted Red Hat. Steve Ballmer's vote is not going to stem Red Hat's rise.

What would? Well, maybe if Novell would stop hedging its open source bet with "mixed source" and go full throttle. I understand the need to support its legacy products, but if Novell can't wean itself from its legacy, that's all it will ever be. Legacy. The green screen of software companies.

I left Novell precisely because the company refused to play hardball with Red Hat. Its mixed source message sends mixed signals, and has long given Red Hat free rein to woo customers and dominate the market. A Faustian bargain with Microsoft isn't the way to revive Novell's chances. It needs to lead, not follow, and certainly not follow the monopolist it fought for so long.

Novell has been doing great things in the data center, and has a solid and growing cadre of name-brand companies buying into SUSE Linux. This is the message it needs to be trumpeting. It needs to be pushing, not shelving, innovative open source projects like Hula and iFolder. Instead, it keeps retreating into its proprietary, legacy past under the guise of "mixed source" and interoperability.

You can do better than this, Ron. You need to lead the market.